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A risk analyst is interpreting the results derived from applying a GARCH (1,1) model for estimating the current trading day's price volatility of a stock. Selected inputs to the model are provided below:
Previous trading day's return (rₙ₋₁): -3%
Previous variance rate (σₙ₋₁²): 0.0009
Long-run average variance rate (Vₗ): 0.0001
Assuming α, β, and γ are held constant, how did the price volatility estimate calculated using GARCH (1,1) change from the previous day's value to the current day's value?
A
The estimate increased due to the effect of the previous trading day's return.
B
The estimate decreased due to the effect of the previous trading day's return.
C
The estimate increased due to the effect of the long-run average variance rate.
D
The estimate decreased due to the effect of the long-run average variance rate.