A risk consultant is advising a US-based bank on the Dodd-Frank Act stress tests (DFAST), an annual stress test exercise conducted by the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) for mid-size US banks. The consultant points out that the Fed requires the banks to utilize three supervisor-devised macroeconomic scenarios during the DFAST stress test. Which of the following describes the conditions that one of the supervisor-devised scenarios is designed to simulate?