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Answer: 1.91%
## Explanation To solve this problem, we need to use two key formulas: ### 1. Real Interest Rate Formula \[ R_{\text{real}} = \frac{1 + R_{\text{nom}}}{1 + R_{\text{infl}}} - 1 \] ### 2. Covered Interest Parity Formula \[ F = S \cdot \frac{(1 + R_{\text{CAD}})^t}{(1 + R_{\text{USD}})^t} \] **Given:** - Spot rate (S) = CAD 1.21 per USD 1 - Forward rate (F) = CAD 1.19 per USD 1 - US risk-free rate (R_USD) = 0.85% = 0.0085 - US inflation (R_infl, USD) = 2.50% = 0.025 - Canada inflation (R_infl, CAD) = 2.80% = 0.028 **Step 1: Calculate Canadian nominal interest rate using CIP** \[ (1 + R_{\text{CAD}})^1 = F \cdot \frac{(1 + R_{\text{USD}})}{S} \] \[ (1 + R_{\text{CAD}}) = 1.19 \cdot \frac{(1 + 0.0085)}{1.21} \] \[ (1 + R_{\text{CAD}}) = 1.19 \cdot \frac{1.0085}{1.21} \] \[ (1 + R_{\text{CAD}}) = 1.19 \cdot 0.8339 \] \[ (1 + R_{\text{CAD}}) = 0.9918 \] \[ R_{\text{CAD}} = 0.9918 - 1 = -0.00817 = -0.817\% \] **Step 2: Calculate real interest rates** **US Real Interest Rate:** \[ R_{\text{USD, real}} = \frac{1 + 0.0085}{1 + 0.025} - 1 \] \[ R_{\text{USD, real}} = \frac{1.0085}{1.025} - 1 \] \[ R_{\text{USD, real}} = 0.9839 - 1 = -0.0161 = -1.61\% \] **Canada Real Interest Rate:** \[ R_{\text{CAD, real}} = \frac{1 + (-0.00817)}{1 + 0.028} - 1 \] \[ R_{\text{CAD, real}} = \frac{0.99183}{1.028} - 1 \] \[ R_{\text{CAD, real}} = 0.9648 - 1 = -0.0352 = -3.52\% \] **Step 3: Calculate the difference** \[ \text{Difference} = |R_{\text{USD, real}} - R_{\text{CAD, real}}| \] \[ \text{Difference} = |-1.61\% - (-3.52\%)| \] \[ \text{Difference} = |1.91\%| = 1.91\% \] Therefore, the best estimate of the difference between the real interest rates in Canada and the US is **1.91%**.
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A risk manager at a foreign exchange dealer is assessing the relative level of real and nominal interest rates in the US and Canada. The exchange rate is currently at CAD 1.21 per USD 1, and the firm's economist forecasts an exchange rate of CAD 1.19 per USD 1 one year from now. The analyst notes that the annual risk-free rate of interest in the US is 0.85%, and the annual inflation rates for the US and Canada are 2.50% and 2.80% respectively. If purchasing power parity and covered interest parity both hold, what is the best estimate of the difference between the real interest rates in Canada and the US?
A
0.30%
B
1.36%
C
1.69%
D
1.91%
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