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Answer: 4.21%.
## Explanation To calculate the six-month forward rate one year from now (i.e., the forward rate from year 1 to year 1.5), we use the relationship between spot rates and forward rates: **Step 1: Understand the timeline** - We want the forward rate from t=1 year to t=1.5 years (a 6-month period) - This is denoted as f(1,1.5) or f(2,3) in period notation **Step 2: Use the forward rate formula** The relationship between spot rates and forward rates is: \[ (1 + z_3)^{3} = (1 + z_2)^{2} \times (1 + f_{2,3}) \] Where: - z₂ = spot rate for period 2 (1.0 year) = 2.10% = 0.0210 - z₃ = spot rate for period 3 (1.5 years) = 2.80% = 0.0280 - f₂,₃ = forward rate from period 2 to period 3 (what we're solving for) **Step 3: Convert to semiannual rates** Since these are BEY (bond equivalent yields), they are already quoted on a semiannual bond basis, so we use them directly: \[ (1 + \frac{z_3}{2})^{3} = (1 + \frac{z_2}{2})^{2} \times (1 + \frac{f_{2,3}}{2}) \] **Step 4: Plug in the values** \[ (1 + \frac{0.0280}{2})^{3} = (1 + \frac{0.0210}{2})^{2} \times (1 + \frac{f_{2,3}}{2}) \] \[ (1 + 0.0140)^{3} = (1 + 0.0105)^{2} \times (1 + \frac{f_{2,3}}{2}) \] \[ (1.0140)^{3} = (1.0105)^{2} \times (1 + \frac{f_{2,3}}{2}) \] **Step 5: Calculate** \[ 1.042669 = 1.021103 \times (1 + \frac{f_{2,3}}{2}) \] \[ 1 + \frac{f_{2,3}}{2} = \frac{1.042669}{1.021103} = 1.021123 \] \[ \frac{f_{2,3}}{2} = 0.021123 \] \[ f_{2,3} = 0.042246 \text{ or } 4.2246\% \] **Step 6: Compare to options** 4.2246% is closest to 4.21% (Option C). **Alternative calculation method:** \[ f_{2,3} = 2 \times \left[ \frac{(1 + \frac{z_3}{2})^{3}}{(1 + \frac{z_2}{2})^{2}} - 1 \right] \] \[ f_{2,3} = 2 \times \left[ \frac{(1.0140)^{3}}{(1.0105)^{2}} - 1 \right] \] \[ f_{2,3} = 2 \times [1.021123 - 1] = 2 \times 0.021123 = 0.042246 \] **Why not the other options:** - **Option A (2.10%)**: This is simply the 1-year spot rate, not the forward rate - **Option B (3.64%)**: This might result from incorrect calculation or using annual compounding instead of semiannual **Key Concept:** Forward rates represent the expected future interest rate between two future periods, implied by current spot rates. They are calculated using the no-arbitrage principle in the yield curve.
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The semiannual bond equivalent yield spot rates for US Treasury yields are provided below.
| Period | Years | Spot Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.5 | 1.20% |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.10% |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.80% |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.30% |
On a semiannual bond equivalent yield (BEY) basis, the six-month forward rate one year from now is closest to:
A
2.10%.
B
3.64%.
C
4.21%.
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