Explanation
Mortgage pass-through security is most likely subject to the highest prepayment risk among the given options.
Analysis of each option:
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Covered bond (Option A):
- Covered bonds are debt securities backed by a pool of loans (typically mortgages) that remain on the issuer's balance sheet.
- They have dual recourse: to the issuer and to the collateral pool.
- Prepayment risk exists but is typically lower than mortgage pass-through securities because the issuer can manage the collateral pool and may have substitution rights.
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Mortgage pass-through security (Option B):
- These are securities where mortgage payments (principal and interest) are passed through to investors.
- They have the highest prepayment risk because homeowners can refinance their mortgages when interest rates fall, leading to early principal repayment.
- This creates uncertainty about cash flow timing and duration for investors.
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Credit card receivable asset-backed security (Option C):
- These are backed by credit card receivables.
- They typically have very low prepayment risk because credit card balances are revolving and don't have fixed repayment schedules like mortgages.
- Early repayments are less sensitive to interest rate changes compared to mortgages.
Key Concept:
Prepayment risk refers to the uncertainty about when borrowers will repay their loans early, which affects the timing and amount of cash flows to investors. Mortgage-backed securities are particularly vulnerable to prepayment risk because homeowners often refinance when interest rates decline.
Why Option B is correct:
- Mortgage pass-through securities directly expose investors to homeowner prepayment decisions
- No credit enhancement or structural features to mitigate prepayment risk
- Highly sensitive to interest rate changes
- Unlike covered bonds, there's no issuer guarantee or collateral substitution to manage prepayment risk