Answer-first summary for fast verification
Answer: 0.5675
This question can be solved using the total probability rule. If p(T) = 0.65 (Unconditional probability of train arriving on time is 0.65), then the unconditional probability of the train not arriving on time p(T c) = 1 - p(T) = 1 - 0.65 = 0.35. Now, we can solve for p(O) = p(O|T) * p(T) + p(O|T c) * p(T c) = 0.62 * 0.65 + 0.47 * 0.35 = 0.5675
Author: Nikitesh Somanthe
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A mathematician has given you the following conditional probabilities:
What is the unconditional probability of reaching the office, p(O)?
A
0.5675
B
0.4325
C
0.3265
D
0.3333
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