
Explanation:
Given:
Find sensitivity from total probability:
So
Compute :
Apply Bayes for :
Conclusion: the correct posterior ≈89.1%. None of the given choices match exactly; C (87%) is closest and D (93%) is incorrect.
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A test for heart disease results in a false positive 5% of the time. 25% of the population has heart disease and 20% test positive. Given a negative test, what is the probability the patient does NOT have heart disease?
A
67%
B
70%
C
87%
D
93%