The variance of an AR(2) process can be calculated using the formula for the variance of an AR(p) process:
γ0=1−ϕ1ρ1−ϕ2ρ2σϵ2
Where:
- σϵ2 is the variance of the white noise (0.4² = 0.16)
- ϕ1=1.5 and ϕ2=−0.7 are the AR coefficients
- ρ1 and ρ2 are the autocorrelations
For an AR(2) process, we can also use the Yule-Walker equations. However, note that there appears to be a typo in the original equation: it should be Yt=0.4+1.5Yt−1−0.7Yt−2+ϵt (not Yt−1 twice).
Using the provided calculation:
V(Yt)=1−1.5+0.70.42=0.20.16=0.800
Thus, the variance of the time series is 0.8.