
Ultimate access to all questions.
Explanation:
The correct answer is C because when sales have a relatively constant growth rate over time, the log-linear model (lnSₜ = ln(β₀ + β₁ × t)) is most appropriate. This model transforms the data to linearize exponential growth patterns, where the coefficient β₁ represents the constant growth rate.
Key points:
Mathematical reasoning: When growth rate is constant, sales follow: Sₜ = S₀ × (1 + g)ᵗ, where g is the constant growth rate. Taking natural logs: ln(Sₜ) = ln(S₀) + t × ln(1 + g), which is linear in t with slope ln(1 + g) ≈ g for small g.
Roderick Jaynes, FRM, analyzed historical sales (S) for over 20 years and found that sales are increasing but its growth rate over the period is relatively constant. Which model is most suitable to forecast out-of-sample sales?
A
Sₜ = β₀ + β₁ × Sₜ₋₁
B
Sₜ = β₀ + β₁ × t
C
lnSₜ = ln(β₀ + β₁ × t)
D
Sₜ = β₀ + β₁ × t + β₂ × t²
No comments yet.