When a relevant variable is omitted from a regression model, it causes "omitted variable bias". The expected value of the biased estimated coefficient (β^1) in the reduced model is given by:
E[β^1]=β1+β2×Var(X1)Cov(X1,X2)
We know that:
Cov(X1,X2)=ρX1X2×σX1×σX2
Var(X1)=σX12
Therefore, the bias equation can be rewritten as:
E[β^1]=β1+β2×ρX1X2×σX1σX2
Given the values from the full (true) model and the reduced model:
- True β1=2.2
- True β2=1.1
- Estimated (biased) β^1=2.4
- Variance of X1: σX12=16⟹σX1=4
- Variance of X2: σX22=49⟹σX2=7
Substitute these into the equation to solve for ρX1X2:
‘2.4 = 2.2 + 1.1 \times \rho_{X_1 X_2} \times \frac{7}{4}$$ $0.2` = 1.1 \times \rho_{X_1 X_2} \times 1.75$$
$0.2 = 1.925 \times \rho_{X_1 X_2}\rho_{X_1 X_2} = \frac{0.2}{1.925} \approx 0.103896$$
This is approximately $0.1039$.