First, we find the expected portfolio return and standard deviation. The weights of the portfolio are: $W_X = \frac{40}{40 + 60} = 0.40$ $W_Y = \frac{60}{40 + 60} = 0.60$

The expected return of the portfolio is: $E(R_p) = W_X E(R_X) + W_Y E(R_Y) = (0.40 \times 4\%) + (0.60 \times 9\%) = 1.6\% + 5.4\% = 7.0\%$

The variance of the portfolio since Fund X and Fund Y are independent (correlation is 0): $Var(R_p) = W_X^2 \times Var(R_X) + W_Y^2 \times Var(R_Y)$ $Var(R_p) = (0.40^2 \times 8^2) + (0.60^2 \times 20^2) = (0.16 \times 64) + (0.36 \times 400)$ $Var(R_p) = 10.24 + 144 = 154.24$

The standard deviation of the portfolio is: $StdDev(R_p) = \sqrt{154.24} \approx 12.419\%$

The z-score to find the probability that returns are greater than 30 (assumed 30%): $Z = \frac{30 - 7.0}{12.419} \approx 1.85$

According to standard normal distribution tables, the cumulative probability up to $Z = 1.85$ is approximately $0.9678$. Therefore, the probability of exceeding this return is:$P(Z > 1.85) = 1 - 0.9678 = 0.0322$