First, let's find the proportion of patients arriving in each stage:
P(Stage 1)=0.10
P(Stage 2)=0.40
P(Stage 3)=0.30
P(Stage 4)=1−(0.10+0.40+0.30)=0.20
Next, we calculate the survival rates for each stage:
P(Survive∣Stage 1)=1−0.10=0.90
P(Survive∣Stage 2)=1−0.20=0.80
P(Survive∣Stage 3)=1−0.30=0.70
P(Survive∣Stage 4)=1−0.50=0.50
The joint probabilities of being in a stage and surviving are:
P(Stage 1∩Survive)=0.10×0.90=0.09
P(Stage 2∩Survive)=0.40×0.80=0.32
P(Stage 3∩Survive)=0.30×0.70=0.21
P(Stage 4∩Survive)=0.20×0.50=0.10
Total probability of survival P(Survive)=0.09+0.32+0.21+0.10=0.72
Using Bayes' theorem, the probability that the patient was in stage 4 given they survived is:
P(Stage 4∣Survive)=P(Survive)P(Stage 4∩Survive)=0.720.10≈0.13888 or $13.88%$.