
Explanation:
Option B is false. The conditional default probability over a very short interval , given survival up to time , is approximated by (or ). The expression represents the ratio of the probability of default by time to the probability of survival to time , which is not the conditional default probability over a short interval.
Option A is true. As , the cumulative survival time , meaning default is eventually certain.
Option C is true. By applying the chain rule, the derivative of is , which represents the marginal default probability density.
Option D is true. The derivative of the survival function is , which is the marginal survival probability and is less than zero.
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307.3. Malz²⁹ gives us the following two distributions, which employ the hazard rate (λ, lambda). Also, as a reminder, the chain rule is shown applied to the exponential function; specifically, exp(x) is elegantly its own derivative, but the derivative of exp[g(x)] is exp[g(x)]*d[g(x)]/dx:
cumulative default time distribution:
survival time distribution:
derivative of with chain rule:
(Source: Allan Malz, Financial Risk Management: Models, History, and Institutions (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2011))
Given these default time and survival time distribution functions, each of the following statements is true EXCEPT, which is false?
A
As (t) grows large, the cumulative survival time, $1 - F(t)$, converges to zero such that even a highly-rated company (i.e., low hazard rate) will eventually default
B
Over a very short interval , the conditional default probability is given by
C
The marginal default probability, which is derivative of the cumulative default time distribution, is given by
D
The marginal survival probability, which is derivative of the cumulative survival time distribution, is given by