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Explanation:
A key practical difficulty in credit risk modeling is that default correlations are very difficult to estimate empirically because defaults are rare events. Thus, statement (a) is true.
Regarding the other options:
(b) is false because the ULC approximation for a large, uniform portfolio is , so for , the multiplier is (or 40%), not 16.0%.
(c) is false because the number of pairwise correlations required is calculated as , not $100!$.
(d) is false because banks often rely heavily on numerical procedures (like Monte Carlo simulation) to handle the complexities and nonlinearities of actual credit portfolios, whereas analytical models have strict, often unrealistic assumptions.
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922.3. Consider a large $20.0 million portfolio of 100 loans. In its general form, the portfolio’s unexpected loss is given by:
However, each loan in this portfolio has approximately the same characteristics and size; i.e., the size of each is about $200,000. For modeling purposes, we can set the pairwise correlation coefficient to be constant for all . These assumptions greatly simplify the calculation of the portfolio’s unexpected loss and each loan’s contribution to portfolio risk.
In this situation, which of the following statements is TRUE?
A
A practical problem with using the general form (i.e., specifying the correlation matrix) is that default correlations are very difficult to observe
B
Under the simplifying assumptions, each loan’s risk contribution (aka, unexpected loss contribution, ULC) is conveniently 16.0% of its individual unexpected loss, UL
C
If we attempted to estimate the portfolio’s unexpected loss by specifying the pairwise correlation matrix of each , then we would require 100! or correlation pairs
D
When estimating the portfolio’s unexpected loss and its component contributions, banks prefer these analytical approaches over numerical procedures because the latter is cumbersome and prone to estimation errors