
Explanation:
The expected credit loss (ECL) for a bond is calculated using the formula: Where .
For Bond A:
For Bond B:
The expected credit loss for the portfolio is simply the sum of the expected losses of the individual assets, as expected losses are strictly additive regardless of correlation:
Note that joint probability of default and default correlation are extraneous information used for calculating Unexpected Loss or Credit VaR, not Expected Loss.
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Q.17 A portfolio consists of two bonds – A and B. The credit VaR is defined as the maximum loss due to defaults at a confidence level of 99% over a one-year horizon. The probability of joint default of A and B is 1.45%, with 25% default correlation. Further details of the bonds are given in the table below:
| Bond | Value | Default probability | Recovery rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | £1,000,000 | 4% | 70% |
| B | £800,000 | 6% | 60% |
Determine the expected credit loss for the portfolio.
A
£12,000
B
£7,800
C
£31,200
D
£20,000
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