Q.4007 Kelvin Streetman is evaluating the extreme risks associated with active contracts on a futures clearing house. He intends to use the peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach (EVT) to estimate value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) in accordance with extreme value theory. Kelvin has set parameters at some empirically plausible values denominated in % terms as displayed below:

Parameter	Value
Loss threshold, u	5.00%
No. of observations, N	700
No. of observations that exceed threshold, N(u)	21
N(u)/N	3.00%
Scale, β	0.70
Shape, aka, tail, ξ	0.25

At the 99.0% confidence level, the position's VaR under the POT approach is 5.885%. Which is nearest to the corresponding 99.0% expected shortfall (ES)?