
Explanation:
The hazard rate is constant at 0.09. The probability of survival to time is .
Due to the memoryless property of the exponential distribution (which applies for a constant hazard rate), the probability of defaulting within the next year, given that the company survived the first year, is exactly the same as defaulting within the first year:
, or $8.61%$.
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Q.38 According to a risk manager, a corporation's hazard rate is 0.09 per year. Given that the company survived the first year, what is the probability that it will default before the end of the second year, assuming a constant hazard rate model?
A
9.14%
B
8.61%
C
8.27%
D
7.87%
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