
Explanation:
Since all positions are obligations from the same obligor, the implication is that the default correlation is 1, and the entire portfolio with behave as if it is a single credit. The portfolio has a 4% probability of total loss and a 96% probability of zero loss. With a recovery rate of zero, the extreme loss given default is $10,000,000.
The expected loss is $400,000 (total portfolio value times the probability of default = 0.04 × 10,000,000). The credit VaR is defined as the quantile of the credit loss less the expected loss of the portfolio. At 99% confidence,
Credit VaR = $10,000,000 − $400,000 = $9,600,000
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Q.4369 A portfolio has a notional value of $10,000,000 with 10 credit positions. Each position has a default probability of 4%. If default actually occurs, each position has a recovery rate of zero. All positions are obligations from the same obligor. Determine the credit value at risk at the 99% confidence level for this portfolio.
A
$0
B
$9,600,000
C
$10,000,000
D
$5,000,000
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