Q.3051 From the given below what is the probability of a bond rated Caa or below defaulting during the third year?

Average cumulative default rates (%), 1970-2012, from Moody's.

Term (years):	1	2	3	4	5	7	10	15	20
Aaa	0.000	0.013	0.013	0.037	0.106	0.247	0.503	0.935	1.104
Aa	0.022	0.069	0.139	0.256	0.383	0.621	0.922	1.756	3.135
A	0.063	0.203	0.414	0.625	0.870	1.441	2.480	4.255	6.841
Baa	0.177	0.495	0.894	1.369	1.877	2.927	4.740	8.628	12.483
Ba	1.112	3.083	5.424	7.934	10.189	14.117	19.708	29.172	36.321
B	4.051	9.608	15.216	20.134	24.613	32.747	41.947	52.217	58.084
Caa – C	16.448	27.867	36.908	44.128	50.366	58.302	69.483	79.178	81.248