
Explanation:
In general, if there are ordered observations, and a confidence level , the VaR is given by the highest observation. This is the observation that separates the tail from the body of the distribution. Given 260 observations, we are therefore interested in the worst observation
Before the latest 10% loss, the ordered losses are as follows:
The 14th worst observation is -6.05. However, given that the stock decreased by 10% between yesterday and today, the arrangement changes; -10% will now be the worst return that the stock experienced over the last 260 business days. The 16 worst returns shall now be:
The VaR at 95% will be based on -6.25%, which is now the 14th worst return.
Notes.
(I) 90 here is the price of the stock today (after a 10% decline yesterday)
(II) We're working with the worst returns recorded over a 260-day moving window, so we're essentially looking back and ordering the worst returns recorded during that period, and one observation slips out of the window every day. The latest return to slip out is -3%, but this is considerably higher (less negative) than -5.85% (lowest worst return on our list), so it does not affect the makeup of the worst 16 returns.
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Q.3010 You have been hired on a popular trading floor and one of the traders comes over and asks about the impact of price changes on her VaR - made of a single long position in stock KKJL. Yesterday's closing price was USD 100.
You are using a 95% confidence historical VaR based on a 260 days moving window of historical data. In this time period, the 16 worst 1-day returns from for KKJL as of yesterday were as follows (in %): -9.5, -8, -7.6, -7.4, -7.2, -7.18, -7.1, -6.9, -6.57, -6.56, -6.45, -6.4, -6.25, -6.05, -5.99, -5.85.
Suppose that the stock price decreased by 10% between yesterday and today following the publication of an adverse dossier on the company. The latest return to slip out of the 260-day moving window is -3%.
What will be the Historical VaR at 95% confidence in absolute terms?
A
USD 6.25
B
USD 5.445
C
USD 5.625
D
USD 6.05