
Explanation:
Credit Value at Risk (Credit VaR) is defined as the Unexpected Loss (UL) at a given confidence level, which is the Worst-Case Loss (WCL) minus the Expected Loss (EL).
$4 million
Loss given default (LGD) = 1 - Recovery Rate = 1 - 0 = 100%
EL = PD \times EAD \times LGD = 0.04 \times \`4 \text{ million} \times 1 = \2. **Calculate the Worst-Case Loss (WCL) at the 99% confidence level:** Since the correlation is perfectly positive (1.0), all 30 credits will either default together or survive together. There is a 4% probability that the entire portfolio defaults (resulting in a \0 loss). At the 99% confidence level (which falls within the 4% default tail), the maximum loss is the entire notional amount. $WCL = \3. **Calculate the Credit VaR:** $Credit VaR = WCL - EL = \4` \text{ million} - \`0.16 \text{ million} = \Ultimate access to all questions.
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Q.3072 Zhong Hua is a risk analyst at a Chinese bank having a portfolio that has a notional value of $4 million with 30 credit positions. Each of the credits has a default probability of 4% and a recovery rate of zero. The credit portfolio has a default correlation equal to 1. What is the credit value at risk at the 99% confidence level for this credit portfolio?
A
$3.6 million
B
$0.16 million
C
$4 million
D
$3.84 million