
Explanation:
To evaluate the relative vulnerability of the counterparties to default, we can estimate their Distance to Default (DD). Using the simplified approximation formula for the Merton model, , where is the market value of assets, is the face value of debt, and is the annual volatility of asset values:
A lower Distance to Default (DD) indicates a higher likelihood of default. Thus, comparing the values, Company P (4.00) is the most likely to default, followed by Company R (4.50), and then Company Q (4.76). Therefore, the correct ranking from most likely to least likely to default is P; R; Q.
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| Company | P | Q | R |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market value of assets (EUR million) | 100 | 150 | 250 |
| Face value of debt (EUR million) | 60 | 100 | 160 |
| Annual volatility of asset values | 10.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% |
Using the information above with the assumption that a zero-coupon bond maturing in 1 year is the only liability for each company, and the approximation formula of the distance to default, what is the correct ranking of the counterparties, from most likely to least likely to default?
A
P; R; Q
B
Q; P; R
C
Q; R; P
D
R; Q; P