
Explanation:
C is correct. It is often more appropriate for stress-testing models to provide a range of possible losses rather than a single estimate.
A is incorrect. While models such as VaR models can be validated using back-testing, there is no similar way of validating the output from a stress test (because stress testing deals with rare events). In this way, the validation of stress-testing models is more difficult than the validation of other models.
B is incorrect. When there are doubts about the best model to use in a certain situation, the results from several models can be compared and the totality of stress-testing reports can make the attendant uncertainties clear.
D is incorrect. Models describing the relationship between variables in normal market conditions (as a model using correlations averaged over a business cycle would) may not describe how they behave in stressed market conditions. Correlations tend to increase in stressed market conditions.
Learning Objective: Describe the role of policies and procedures, validation, and independent review in stress testing governance.
Reference: Global Association of Risk Professionals, Valuation and Risk Models (New York, NY: Pearson, 2023). Chapter 8. Stress Testing [VRM-8]
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A
A. Stress test models are typically back-tested against the bank's historical data to ensure that the model is specified correctly.
B
B. Each stress test should use a single model so that the relationship between the scenario variables and the output is clear and unambiguous.
C
C. Models should produce a range of values for the bank's loss in a stress scenario, rather than a point estimate.
D
D. Relationships between variables in a model used for stress testing should typically be represented using the averages of their correlations over one full economic cycle.
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