
Explanation:
The market for silver is said to be in contango. In the context of commodity markets, contango is a situation where the forward price of a commodity is higher than the spot price. This is typically indicative of an upward sloping forward curve. The relationship between the forward and spot prices of a commodity can be expressed using the formula: , where is the forward price, is the spot price, is the risk-free rate, is the lease rate, and is the time to maturity. In this scenario, given that the risk-free rate (8.2%) is higher than the lease rate (7.9%), the forward prices will be greater than the spot prices, suggesting that the market for silver is in contango. This is consistent with the general principle that in a contango market, investors are willing to pay more for a commodity in the future than the actual expected price of the commodity. This could be due to various factors such as storage costs, convenience yield, and expectations of future price movements.
Choice A is incorrect. Backwardation refers to a market condition where the futures prices are lower than the spot prices. In this case, without knowing the forward prices, we cannot determine if the market for silver is in backwardation.
Choice C is incorrect. Upwardation is not a recognized term in finance or commodity markets and thus does not describe any market condition for silver.
Choice D is incorrect. Even though we do not have direct information about forward prices, given that there's a well-established lending market for silver with a lease rate of 7.9% and risk-free rate of 8.2%, it can be inferred that the cost of carry (risk-free rate - lease rate) is positive which indicates that the market for silver could be in contango.
Q.819 Ahmet Abdullah is a research analyst at Klosky Investment Company. He is interested in analyzing the forward price curve trend of silver prices. Due to a lack of trading, he is unable to get the forward prices for silver. However, he found out that there is an established lending market for silver and the silver lease rate is 7.9%. If the risk-free rate is 8.2%, then which of the following is true?
A
The market for silver is said to be in backwardation
B
The market for silver is said to be in contango
C
The market for silver is said to be in upwardation
D
It cannot be ascertained without forward prices
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