
Explanation:
The most suitable futures contract for a hedge that expires in March would be an oil futures contract with a delivery month of June. This is because a hedger always runs the risk of having to take delivery of the physical asset if the futures contract is held during the delivery month, which can be inconvenient and costly. Therefore, hedgers typically select a delivery month that is as close as possible but later than the expiration of the hedge. As the gap between the hedge expiration date and the delivery month widens, the basis risk also increases. Basis risk refers to the risk that the spot price of the underlying asset could significantly differ from the futures price agreed upon in the contract at expiry, rendering the hedge ineffective and potentially resulting in losses for the hedger. Moreover, if the expiry coincides with the delivery month, a long hedger faces the risk of taking delivery of the physical asset. Taking delivery can be expensive and inconvenient. Therefore, to avoid these potential issues, hedgers often choose a delivery month that is slightly ahead of the expiration of the hedge. In this case, since the client needs to buy oil in March, they would enter into a contract expiring in June and close out the contract in March. Closing out means they cash in on the contract and proceed to buy oil from their preferred supplier. This strategy allows for a convenient exit from the contract.
Choice A is incorrect. Although it may seem logical to choose a futures contract with the same delivery month as the anticipated need, this would not provide an effective hedge. The client's need for oil is in March, but if they were to enter into a futures contract that also expires in March, they would face the risk of having to take delivery of the physical asset in March, which could be inconvenient and costly.
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Q.632 Asim Hussain has recently joined the commodities trading desk of an investment bank in London. He is a hedger-trader who takes positions in futures contracts to earn profit from the difference in the spot price and futures price of a contract. He hedges the bank's exposure and also hedges on behalf of the bank's clients. One of the bank's clients knows they will need to buy oil at some time in March and believes the oil prices could fluctuate heavily by that time. Therefore, he instructs Hussain to come up with a strategy to hedge oil with expiration in March. Hussain knows that the delivery months of oil futures contracts are March, June, September, and December. Which of the following contracts is most suitable for the hedge that expires in March?
A
Oil futures contracts with the delivery month of March.
B
Oil futures contracts with the delivery month of June.
C
Oil futures contracts with the delivery month of September.
D
Oil futures contracts with the delivery month of December.